Absolutely, so what you are unlikely to witness is the whole of Gurgaon or all the projects of a certain developer suddenly trading at 20% lower prices. Instead, what you are likely to see is financially stressed developers taking pricing decisions on a project-by-project basis across their portfolios.
Not really, I would disagree here on the first end of this discussion. What this situation means to us is that there is unlikely to be a secular broad-based correction where all markets or all properties in a particular market or all projects of a particular developer will drop prices in a structured manner.
This is a very interesting discussion. So what you guys are saying is that very soon we could expect a market crash? That is a disaster for people planning to invest in real estate immediately. Are we advised to wait for the moment and not invest in real estate now?
Well, not completely true. If all these previously discussed factors do mix up now, there is no doubt we are headed for a market crash. However, before we brighten up and get ready for an investment, we have to factor in one most important point. This is Indian market, not many of the practically logical factors we see here, don’t normally work the way we expect them to here.
See we need to understand that there are no particular norms for the Indian real estate market. Every micro market is different here, they work differently, and they act differently. Every project and every apartment are unlike the other. Their pricing or value is not identical; it all boils down to the physical features, the demand-supply metrics, the ownership structure and the financial situation of the owner/developer apart from a host of other factors.
There is no doubt that real estate developers’ balance sheets are very stressed now. With cash flows from fresh sales housing, debt servicing has become a challenge for many. A few defaults have happened; they say more can be expected soon.
One other factor that might affect is the Reserve Bank of India’s recent directive to banks asking them to be mindful of equated monthly installment subvention schemes on loans will further seriously dent whatever sales were taking place in the last few months. Even worst, new capital sources for real estate developers are severely constrained at the moment. There is only a small amount of bank debt available, absolutely no public market equity anywhere in sight, and a limited appetite from real estate funds, non-banking finance companies and high net worth individuals, all three of which are looking for high yields and adequate collateral for their money.
In the past few months the residential real estate sales has definitely gone down. So much so, that the due to both the unaffordable prices and the general lack of confidence in the short term economic prospects. Unsold inventory levels in such markets have ballooned rapidly. So there is definitely a chance that there will be a correction in prices.